I am following with great concern what has been happening over the past nearly seven months of school closures amid a period of rapid automation—including due to COVID—and the advent of artificial intelligence, which could lead to job losses and a demand for more sophisticated skills for the new jobs that are created.

If we look at the data from the Education module of the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), published in July by the IBGE, there are some reasons to celebrate in the pre-COVID world. In Basic Education, the enrollment rate by age group shows steady progress since 2016, ranging from daycare (ages 0 to 3), where 35.6% of children are enrolled, to the 15- to 17-year-old age group, where 89.2% of these young people are in school. Indeed, we have made progress in access to schooling.

It is important to remember, however, that all 15- to 17-year-olds should be in school, since, as of 2016, this has been the age for compulsory education, and we still have a large group of adolescents in this age group who are not attending classes.

To make matters worse, many students in this age group are older than expected for their grade level, which means that some of them are in elementary school rather than high school, where they should be. This delay has, unfortunately, contributed to an increase in school dropout rates, almost always after failing a grade or two.

The proportion of Brazilians aged 25 or older who have completed high school has increased in Brazil. However, more than half of the adults in this age group have not completed this level of education. It is important to remember that, in the era of the so-called Industry 4.0, in which rapid automation and artificial intelligence are replacing human labor—including jobs that require intellectual skills—having less than a high school education means extremely low employability or entrepreneurial potential.

That is why it is so important to actively reach out to students who show signs that they may not continue their studies. In the context of the pandemic we are experiencing, this may be evident through a lack of participation in remote learning activities or a loss of family income.

After all, in another survey conducted by the National Youth Council, of the approximately 33,000 young people surveyed, 28% said they did not intend to return to school. If these statements prove true, we will have a country that is even more exclusionary, less developed, and completely unprepared for the century in which we live. And if the absence from school caused by the pandemic continues, with no prospect of a return, this will certainly become a self-fulfilling prophecy!

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