The media has been reporting extensively in recent days on educational statistics regarding the loss of students at private schools due to the pandemic. Journalists, in general, love a good headline. This time was no different:

 

“Over the past two years of the pandemic,

"Private schools lost nearly one million students." *OGlobo*, March 3, 2022  

 

With a figure like that—one million students—there's no doubt the headline was quite eye-catching.

But we need to better understand the statistics related to this text so as not to make erroneous judgments and, consequently, end up making the wrong decisions.

Yes, the pandemic has been terrible for private schools. And yes, it has been particularly painful for early childhood education programs—as noted in the same news article.

However, it is essential to understand that these analyses were based on the 2021 Educational Census, which was recently released. This means that this striking drop in student enrollment occurred when comparing the start of the 2020 school year—that is, before the pandemic—with the start of the 2021 school year—during a peak of the second and deadliest wave of the pandemic, a time when restrictive measures were being reimposed and extended to private schools as well. The year 2021 began with a high rate of remote learning.

A comparison between these two periods—early 2020 and early 2021—could not lead to any conclusion other than the severe decline in enrollment in the private education system focused on early childhood education.

This conclusion, incidentally, had already been shared with Corus clients in March 2021, when we released the results of our Annual Student Survey. At the time, we noted a 4.5% decline in the total number of students in private schools, but with a particularly sharp drop in Early Childhood Education, where enrollment fell by 23%—the same figure now reported by the press.

But a lot has happened since then. For starters, in-person classes became the rule rather than the exception starting in August 2021. This development made all the difference in the trend of demand for private education. From June to September of last year, schools saw their enrollment grow by 2.4%—roughly half of what they had lost due to the pandemic. Early childhood education supports this view: it recovered 13% of the 23% it had lost. All of this occurred in the second half of last year. The media does not yet know this—and may never find out—since the Ministry of Education (MEC) does not conduct a census midyear.

The recovery continues into 2022. Schools are in a much stronger position in the eyes of society when it comes to the discourse highlighting the importance of in-person learning. We will have the precise data from our survey sometime in March of this year, at which point our clients will learn in detail how the market has performed. However, it is already possible to share some insights we have gathered through our ongoing contact with the schools we serve.

Elementary and high school enrollment has already returned to pre-pandemic levels in terms of student numbers. It is worth noting here that the number of scholarships rose significantly during this period and is being gradually reduced by schools—but it is still far from pre-crisis levels.

Early childhood education continues to warrant a separate analysis. The general perception is that the recovery is still underway. However, it is a fact that the sector has yet to return to where it was in March 2020. In this regard, the vast majority of schools have been disappointed with the number of enrollments of young children. The recovery envisioned by the market was expected to be more robust.

Since this reflects the market as a whole—rather than the situation at any one particular school—we can draw the following conclusion: there are still many students, especially those in the age groups up to 3 years old, who are at home. These students are not attending a competing school; they simply are not attending any school at all.

The reason for this situation is Omicron. Until just a few weeks ago, the number of cases was rising almost vertically. The number of deaths, though at a slower pace, was also rising. That has already changed—and quite significantly—as, in fact, Corus predicted in an article published in January of this year. The number of cases is falling just as quickly as it rose. The number of deaths is on a steady decline. If this trend continues—and provided no new variant emerges (the major variable beyond our control)—in about a month, the public mood regarding the “pandemic” will be radically different from what we have seen so far. This process is already underway. Restrictions will certainly be eased. There is even talk of ending the mandatory use of masks in schools.

The expectation, therefore, is that in the short term, early childhood education students who are currently at home will begin attending school on a consistent basis. As a result, it is quite possible that schools will eventually reach—albeit more slowly—the enrollment figures they projected for this program in 2022. It is therefore worth investing in promoting available spots in these classes.

It’s also worth noting that the phenomenon of unmet expectations due to the Omicron variant wasn’t limited to the number of students in early childhood education. Another sector that has been hit hard so far is extracurricular activities, including full-day programs. Here, the situation is more serious: the gap between what was planned and what has actually happened—at least so far—is very wide. The demand per enrolled student is much lower than in 2019, before the pandemic. There is enormous room here for schools to make progress moving forward. This should undoubtedly be one of the focal points of schools’ strategic efforts during this first semester.

 

Learn more about the author:

With a degree in Economics from the School of Economics and Business Administration at USP and an MBA in Business Economics from USP, Barão served as director of Sieeesp (Union of Educational Institutions of the State of São Paulo) and managed private schools for nine years. He serves on the board of several educational institutions. He has been working as a business consultant since 1994.

 

 

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