In 2024, Brazil reached the milestone of 10.2 million students enrolled in undergraduate programs. This figure represents a record for Brazilian higher education, but the growth in enrollment comes with a major challenge: ensuring that these students remain in college until they complete their degree.

According to data from the Higher Education Map, compiled by the Union of Higher Education Institution Sponsoring Entities in the State of São Paulo (Semesp), 79.8% of students are enrolled in private institutions and 20.2% in public institutions.

Despite the expansion of access, dropout rates still affect a significant portion of college students. Among students in on-campus programs, 24.8% drop out of their undergraduate program before graduating. In distance learning programs, the rate reaches 41.6%.

According to experts, the current situation suggests that the country’s challenge lies not only in expanding access to higher education, but also in creating the conditions that will enable students to progress through their studies and earn a degree.

“The challenge in Brazil is no longer just about opening the doors to universities. It’s about creating the conditions for students to stay, learn, and complete their education,” says Priscila Claro, director of undergraduate studies at Insper .

The increase in enrollment was driven primarily by distance learning. In 2024, approximately 5.18 million students were enrolled in distance learning courses, accounting for 50.7% of the total. In face-to-face instruction, there were 5.03 million students, or 49.3%. Over the past decade, the number of distance learning enrollments has grown by 287%.

The growth of this mode of instruction is also linked to the profile of students who choose distance learning. More than 60% of those enrolled in this mode are over 30 years old. In face-to-face instruction, 65% of students are 24 years old or younger.

"These are older people who are already in the workforce and are looking to take an online course to advance their careers," explains Semesp Executive Director Rodrigo Capelato.

In general, experts say, dropping out is attributed to factors such as loss of income, inability to pay tuition, difficulty balancing studies with other responsibilities, and regret over the choice of program.

"90% of students have a family income of up to three minimum wages. In addition, their education in public elementary and middle schools is often inadequate. Students enter college and are unable to keep up with the coursework," says Capelato.

There are also reasons inherent to distance learning itself, such as the lack of contact with teachers and classmates and difficulties in organizing one's studies in a remote learning setting.

"Distance learning opens the door to higher education for those who otherwise wouldn't have access to it, but when it is offered without interaction, guidance, and support, it can turn flexibility into isolation and, consequently, dropout rates," says Priscila Claro.

The difference in student profiles helps explain some of the challenges students face in staying in school. Older students often have to balance their undergraduate studies with work and family responsibilities. According to Capelato, this situation increases the likelihood that they will drop out.

Access has not yet reached all young people

Although the number of enrollments has reached a record high, the data also show that there is still room to expand access to higher education. Only 20% of young Brazilians are enrolled in a university, according to Capelato.

“There are still a lot of people to be admitted. Far more than the growth that has been recorded so far,” notes the executive director of Semesp.

In this context, distance learning emerges as an alternative for expanding access, particularly for students who face difficulties attending an in-person undergraduate program. In addition to tuition, the in-person model may involve additional costs for transportation, meals, and, in some cases, housing.

The expansion of the program, however, does not eliminate the obstacles related to student retention. Among the factors associated with dropout rates are loss of income, difficulty paying tuition, problems balancing studies with work and other responsibilities, and regret about the choice of program.

The socioeconomic profile of college students is also a significant factor. According to Capelato, 90% of students have a family income of up to three minimum wages. Some of them enter higher education after a path marked by difficulties in K-12 education. “Often, the education they receive in public elementary and secondary schools is inadequate. Students arrive in college and are unable to keep up with the coursework,” he says.

In distance learning, there are also challenges related to the nature of the format itself, such as organizing one’s studies, the need for self-discipline, and less interaction with teachers and classmates when there is no adequate supervision.

“Distance learning opens the door to higher education for those who otherwise wouldn’t have access to it, but when it’s offered without interaction, guidance, and support, it can turn flexibility into isolation and, consequently, dropout rates,” says Priscila Claro.

For the director of Insper, the issue is not just the program chosen, but the conditions offered to students throughout their academic journey.

Retention begins before college

In light of dropout rates, experts argue that strategies to increase course completion rates must address different stages of the educational journey. According to Capelato, one of the key measures is to improve the quality of basic education, preparing students for the academic challenges they will face in college.

Another approach would be to bring higher education institutions closer to students while they are still in high school. This relationship could help young people better understand their educational options and establish a clearer connection between high school, college, and the workforce.

“Higher education institutions can help high schools address the issue of the new high school curriculum. This can help give students a greater sense of purpose so they enter college better prepared,” says Capelato.

The choice of program is also among the factors that can help reduce dropout rates. According to the director of Semesp, some of the dropouts are related to a lack of knowledge about the chosen career path.“We’ve noticed that dropouts are also linked to a lack of understanding of the career path,” he says.

Priscila also believes it is important to expose students to the realities of the professional world. Having contact with the job market and learning about activities related to their profession while still in school can help students develop a perspective on their chosen career.

In this process, the university also plays a role in building a support network that goes beyond academic guidance. Professional mentoring, scholarships, and financial aid for food and housing can be important for students who face financial difficulties and need to balance their undergraduate studies with other responsibilities.

“In short, retention does not mean lowering standards. It means providing clarity, a sense of belonging, guidance, support, and the academic and emotional conditions necessary for students to learn and complete their programs,” concludes Priscila.

Public policies focus on quality and retention

The Ministry of Education (MEC) states that it has also been strengthening student assistance as a strategy to keep students in school. According to the ministry, the budget for this area has grown by 75%, from R$ 1.2 billion in 2022 to R$ 2.1 billion in 2026. The ministry also reported that it has doubled the number of retention scholarships available to Indigenous and Quilombola students, from 8,600 to 17,500 this year, and increased the scholarship amount from R$900 to R$1,400.

In addition, the government states that it has invested R$ 3.9 billion through 2027, via the Novo PAC program, to create ten new campuses and carry out 421 improvement projects at federal universities. Eight other campuses were created with funding from the Ministry of Education (MEC) and the universities themselves. According to the ministry, two new federal universities—Unind and Ufesporte—will begin operations in 2027, while the budget for federal universities has grown by 45% since 2023.

Source of the article: O Estado de S. Paulo

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