Dropout rates are one of the main challenges to expanding access to higher education in Brazil. Although distance learning (EaD) broadens opportunities for admission to undergraduate programs, ensuring that students remain in school until they complete their degrees remains a challenge for institutions.

Data from the 16th edition of the Map of Higher Education in Brazil, published by the Semesp Institute in March 2026, show that the dropout rate for distance learning reached 41.6%, while for in-person instruction the rate was 24.8% in 2024.

The figures show that expanding access to undergraduate education is not enough to ensure students’ academic success. According to Daniel de Aquino Ximenes, director of Higher Education Regulation at the Ministry of Education (MEC), inclusion depends on three factors: access, retention, and quality. In distance education, the challenge lies in institutions’ ability to offer courses of high academic quality and keep students engaged in the learning process.

According to the director of the Ministry of Education (MEC), dropout rates in higher education are linked to various factors, including the quality of education, the models of instruction, and the extent to which courses meet students' expectations.

According to Ximenes, it is necessary to assess whether the institutions’ pedagogical and methodological approaches align with the profile of the students entering undergraduate programs, taking into account the changes that have occurred in recent decades.

The appeal of the programs also depends on the relevance of the fields of study to the students and to the country. “Obviously, this discussion necessarily revolves around quality. Without quality, there is no appeal. That’s a fundamental point,” he emphasizes.

The director adds that the Ministry of Education (MEC) has been working to improve the regulation of distance higher education, including a review of the assessment tools used by the Anísio Teixeira National Institute for Educational Studies and Research (Inep).

According to Ximenes, the evaluation of courses and institutions should provide a clearer understanding of the quality standards offered to society.

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Financial Difficulties and Employability

Economic conditions are among the factors that affect students’ ability to continue their studies. Jeferson Altenhofen Ortiz, Chief Operating Officer for Higher Education at Cogna Educação, states that the indicators tracked by the company highlight the significant role that financial issues play in decisions to cancel or suspend enrollment.

“When we analyze some of our indicators, one of the main reasons for dropping out—whether due to cancellation or suspension of the program—is financial. About 70% of cases are related to this factor,” says Ortiz. According to the executive, the financial situation of students and their families also deserves attention, especially when tuition fees pose an obstacle to continuing their studies.

Another aspect is the relationship between academic training and entry into the workforce. According to Ortiz, internship opportunities can help keep students engaged in their program and bring their undergraduate studies closer to their career goals.

As an example, Ortiz cites the partnership between Cogna Educação and the Center for Business-School Integration (CIEE), which is designed to connect higher education students with internship opportunities. According to the metrics presented by the executive, the dropout rate among students who complete internships through this partnership is approximately 20% lower.

“This means there is an element of consistency and student retention in this process,” he says.

The length of an undergraduate program can also pose a challenge. Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cited by Ortiz indicate that about 49% of Brazilian higher education students take at least three years longer than the standard duration to complete their degree.

The additional time may extend the financial and personal commitment required for training, underscoring the importance of support policies that take students' living conditions into account.

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Educational mediation as a strategy for retention

In distance learning, flexible schedules and the ability to study outside a university campus expand access, but they do not eliminate the need for academic support.

Interaction between students and the professionals responsible for educational support is a key factor in reducing dropout rates. “Distance-learning students cannot remain distant and isolated. They must be active participants in the educational process every day,” argues Ximenes.

The need for support is also evident in the indicators cited by Ortiz. According to him, students who interact with the educational mediator achieve higher graduation rates than those who do not have this interaction. “If you compare a student who does not interact with the mediator—who is the former tutor—to one who does, 50% more graduate,” he says.

For the executive, the role of mediation should go beyond supporting academic content. Ongoing dialogue and attention to students’ difficulties can help identify obstacles before they lead to students dropping out of the program. “The human factor is very important, ” says Ortiz.

The in-person support structure is also part of the discussion on retention in distance learning. According to Ximenes, the regional centers play an important role in the Brazilian model, given the country’s vast territory and its economic, cultural, and historical characteristics.

“Brazil needs hubs. Every country has its own characteristics. When we work on public policy, we have to take into account the economic, cultural, political, and historical characteristics of the country we’re dealing with,” he says.

New regulatory framework calls for changes to distance learning

The new regulatory framework for distance education is another area that is likely to influence how courses are organized in the coming years. According to Ximenes, the transition period ends in May 2027, at which point it will be possible to see how institutions have adapted to the new requirements.

“From that point on (May 2027), a new phase begins. Some institutions take this transition very seriously and handle the process very well; others, not so much. This will be an indicator to watch,” he says.

Striking a balance between access, quality, and retention will therefore be one of the challenges facing institutions and public policies on higher education. Reducing dropout rates depends on measures that take into account both the conditions under which courses are offered and the academic, financial, and professional needs of students.

For Ortiz, a college degree represents an important step in a lifelong learning journey that can broaden students’ career prospects.

“Higher education is one step in a very long learning journey, and it is an extremely important factor in career advancement and salary growth,” he concludes. The panel took place during Expo CIEE 2026.

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