A study conducted by the Unibanco Institute on the economic impacts of the novel coronavirus pandemic on the Brazilian education sector revealed that state school systems as a whole are expected to suffer losses ranging from R$9 billion to R$28 billion in 2020, depending on how tax revenues earmarked for the maintenance and development of education pan out in the coming months. 

In addition to this projection, the document emphasizes that educational expenditures continue to rise due to new investments aimed at ensuring the continuity of educational activities—such as the acquisition of tools for remote learning and teacher training. The survey indicated that nearly R$ 2 billion in additional funds were spent on the adjustments necessary to provide a variety of distance learning solutions during the period. 

Another point highlighted by the study is that payroll for active employees in the states accounts for at least 60% of total current expenditures, and can reach more than 80% in some cases, according to data from the National Council of Education Secretaries (Consed). These are fixed expenses that must be maintained, as they are mandatory and/or difficult to reallocate. 

The situation is no different in the private sector. “We are experiencing an unprecedented crisis. At least 20% of schools that offer only early childhood education—most of which have fewer than 500 students—may close. Some will not reopen at all,” said Benjamin Ribeiro da Silva, president of Sieeesp (Union of Educational Institutions in the State of São Paulo). Recent data from the union reveals that the average delinquency rate jumped from 6.37% in January to 21.34% in May. The highest average recorded in the state of São Paulo in 2019 was 8.41%. 

The Union of Higher Education Institutions in the State of São Paulo (Semesp), which released its “Guidelines for the Resumption of Higher Education Activities” in early July, also published data on delinquency and dropout rates in its 3rd Survey on the Economic Outlook for Private Higher Education Institutions. In April and May, 265,000 students put their enrollment on hold or dropped out of higher education programs at private institutions. According to the survey, the dropout rate in May was 14.3%, primarily in in-person courses. Compared to the same month last year, there was a 32% increase.

With regard to delinquency, the same survey indicated that in May, the delinquency rate in private higher education nationwide stood at 23.9 percent, a figure 51.7 percent higher than that recorded in the same period of 2019. Overdue tuition payments for in-person courses saw an even greater increase during the period (55.1%), while those for distance learning courses rose by 8.6%. Meanwhile, a survey by the Brazilian Association of Higher Education Providers (ABMES) showed a 75% increase in delinquency between April and May.

The Pandemic's Legacy in Education

When, from one moment to the next, educational institutions, teachers, and families found themselves forced to respond as quickly as possible to the new reality that had been imposed on them, the first challenges they faced were related to infrastructure. Soon after came the pedagogical and administrative-financial challenges—the latter of which will persist even after the pandemic—along with all the adjustments that will be necessary for the resumption of in-person activities.

Pearson Brazil, which provides technology solutions to 1,200 K-12 schools, had already supported a total of 3,000 asynchronous classes by the end of June, at no additional cost. According to the company’s VP of Educational Products for Latin America, Juliano Costa, online classes worked; online schools, however, did not. “Brazil managed to make an impressive transition, and although it is still a process that is being fine-tuned and operating at a minimally acceptable level, it is impossible not to acknowledge that, having reached 1 million online classes produced, it has been a success.”  

Costa also believes that one of the pandemic’s greatest legacies in education may be the opportunity for remote training and professional development for teachers and administrators, which digital distancing has ultimately expanded. “At Pearson alone, we were able to hold more than 230 webinars and provide specific educational support services to schools, as well as another hundred training sessions on the tools needed to keep education going. But the school—with its role in education, socialization, and play—has not been able to be fully replicated in the online environment,” the executive emphasized.