At the start of the 2020–2021 school year, exactly one year ago, schools prepared for students to return to in-person learning, based on projections of a decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths and the mass vaccination of the population.

The setback at the time was massive: the second wave of COVID-19 hit hard, and the vaccination rollout got off to a late and slow start. As a result, students were unable to return to in-person classes as planned, and schools still had to endure a semester marked by many complications stemming from the predominance of distance learning.

In the second half of 2021, the situation improved quite significantly; classes resumed in person, with the exception of some remote learning situations—the opposite, therefore, of the previous reality. This led to a significant increase in student enrollment, particularly in early childhood education, as schools recovered some of the enrollment lost since the start of the pandemic; it also allowed for the resumption of extracurricular activities, albeit at a lower intensity than before 2019. Finally, it led to a slight reduction in the level of discounts offered by schools—a trend that remains modest compared to the enormous damage caused by the pandemic in this regard.

Now, as we transition from 2021 to 2022, schools have prepared to continue making these improvements to the school environment. With the vaccination campaign well underway and the number of cases and deaths at very low levels compared to historical trends, it seemed that the “old normal” would gradually return to schools. But then...

Well, then Omicron came along.

It started in Africa, then spread to Europe and the United States; for a moment, it seemed as though it might not reach Brazil. But it did.

The immediate effect here was similar to that observed in other countries: a dramatic, almost vertical increase in the number of cases, accompanied by a much lower case fatality rate, especially among vaccinated individuals. However, the virus is so highly contagious that, even though its effects are less severe, it has once again become a risk to the healthcare system. At the end of January, the moving average of deaths reached 540—the same level as at the end of September 2021. That alone would be bad news, but there is even worse news: given the steep rise Brazil is currently experiencing, that number is expected to exceed 1,000 per day in a few weeks. A nightmare none of us wanted to relive.

Of course, this poses a risk to school operations; a fearful society is one that waits longer to make decisions about enrolling young children, and a fearful society is more hesitant to sign up for services such as full-day programs and extracurricular sports activities. The “old normal,” therefore, will have to wait a little longer.

The surge in Omicron cases just as schools are reopening will therefore create some challenges in meeting the demand that schools had anticipated for the start of the school year. From an operational planning perspective, it is advisable to go into greater detail about what to expect over the next two months, so that each school can devise its best strategy for dealing with this new reality.

The bad news, as outlined in the paragraphs above, is that the situation will get much worse before it starts to improve. For this reason, schools will experience a sharp spike in cases among students and staff (teachers and employees). It is for this spike that schools need to prepare. It is impossible to prepare for every possible scenario, since the spread of the virus among members of the school community will be random in terms of both time and place. However, it is possible to develop plans for the most likely circumstances.

From the students’ perspective, there is good news: the Omicron variant is arriving at a time when society has come to fully embrace the idea that in-person classes offer a value that cannot be sacrificed. Therefore, all schools should adopt a firm stance on maintaining these classes in this format. Classes with only a few cases of COVID-19 should not be switched to distance learning. At the same time, the quarantine period for infected students should be much shorter than it was until last year, in accordance with the new guidelines from public health authorities. With this combination of measures, the arrival of Omicron can be managed without causing major disruptions to in-person classes.

From the school’s perspective, however, the real challenge will run much deeper. This is where the major management challenge for schools is likely to lie, and it will be primarily logistical. There will be a surge in requests to suspend in-person classes, likely at a higher rate than what was observed in previous waves. Even with shorter absences now, the task of “stretching the blanket” of staff resources to keep in-person classes running and back-office operations functioning at an acceptable level will be grueling. We’ll have a puzzle to solve with a limited number of pieces. How can this be done?

The greatest danger lies in the educational sector, particularly among teachers. It is worth noting the following: a positive COVID-19 diagnosis should result in immediate removal from in-person work, but not necessarily from remote work. This requirement applies only if there is a specific medical certificate ordering the employee to refrain from all activities. Thus, teachers with COVID-19 who do not have a medical certificate ordering them to refrain from work may continue working remotely. As a precaution, the school should advise the teacher to consult a doctor and determine whether rest is necessary.

This opens up a range of options for schools. In the case of teachers on a monthly salary, schools can pay a temporary bonus to classroom aides so that they can take over the teacher’s role for a few days, while the teacher provides support remotely. Alternatively, they can extend the workload of a part-time teacher for that period. If none of these options are feasible, in Elementary School (Grades 1–5), classes may be called to school to attend virtual lessons taught by the teacher. In Early Childhood Education, classes may be combined for a short period. The most important thing is that the physical presence of students at school must remain a priority.

As for classroom teachers, all students must continue attending school in person, but classes taught by teachers with COVID-19 who do not have a doctor’s note authorizing their absence must be conducted remotely. Here, too, the priority should be to keep students physically in school.

The good news (finally): looking at other countries, we can predict that the number of cases will soon begin to fall—and when that happens, the decline will be just as steep as the rise was. When will that happen? No one can say for sure, but the period between the start of the rise and the start of the decline has ranged from 1 month to 2 and a half months. There was a data blackout in Brazil, so official data didn’t begin to reflect the impact of the Omicron variant in the charts until December 25, 2021. That impact likely began at least 10 days earlier, around December 15. Therefore, a forecast of a decline in daily cases starting on February 15 is quite reasonable. In other words, this “logistical nightmare” that schools will face should last until mid-March. The road ahead will be bumpy, but not too long. From then on, if we don’t see any new variants in the short term, we may once again experience a return to the “old normal.”

 

 

Learn more about the author:

With a degree in Economics from the School of Economics and Business Administration at USP and an MBA in Business Economics from USP, Barão served as director of Sieeesp (Union of Educational Institutions of the State of São Paulo) and managed private schools for nine years. He serves on the board of several educational institutions. He has been working as a business consultant since 1994.

 

 

 

 

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