Data from the 2021 Higher Education Census, released on November 4 by Inep, confirm that distance learning has become firmly established as the factor responsible for keeping undergraduate enrollment in the country at around 8 million. As the Institute noted, between 2011 and 2021, the number of new students enrolled in distance learning courses grew by 474%. During the same period, on-campus programs saw a 23.4% decline.

Given the nature of this form of education, it is not surprising that distance learning is more prevalent among private institutions of higher education. At these institutions, distance learning was the choice of 70.5% of the more than 3.4 million students who enrolled in 2021. When considering both private and public institutions of higher education, distance learning already accounts for 41.4% of enrollments.

Although distance learning is playing an important role by providing access to undergraduate programs for students who would otherwise be unable to attend in person, the decline in on-campus enrollment observed in recent years is not a positive sign. On the contrary, it serves as a warning that public policies regarding access to higher education need to be reevaluated.

One explanation for the recurring decline in in-person enrollment is the changes implemented in the FIES rules since 2015. To qualify for financing, students are now required to comply with excessively strict rules that have completely stripped the initiative of its social purpose. Today, only students who are expected to find a job immediately after completing their program are eligible for student loans—a prospect that is still far from a reality for most students.

But there is hope on the horizon. Among the president-elect’s promises is the expansion of FIES, which will only be possible if the program’s social mission is restored. We believe that this measure, combined with the continuation of ProUni (which was also a campaign promise) and the country’s economic recovery, will help revive in-person instruction.

It should be noted, however, that given the current circumstances, restoring the viability of student financing depends on a redesign of the program, not merely on reinstating the old rules. As highlighted by the Forum of Representative Entities of Private Higher Education through the #EducaçãoMaisForte movement in the proposals submitted to the presidential candidates, the country needs a new student loan model that ties future payments to the income actually earned by graduates.

Private institutions of higher education account for 76.9% of enrollments, and this situation is unlikely to change significantly. The government must fulfill its constitutional mission of ensuring that the Brazilian population has access to quality higher education, whether through its own universities or by facilitating students’ access to private institutions.

Expectations are high for changes in this landscape starting in 2023. The revival of a strong and accessible FIES program will not only bring about an increase in enrollment in in-person courses but, above all, restore the hope of millions of Brazilians to pursue a college degree. We, as organizations representing the sector, stand ready to contribute in whatever way necessary.

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*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bett Brasil.