Brazil recorded 46,018,380 enrollments in basic education in 2025, according to preliminary data from the School Census releasedby the Ministry of Education (MEC). This figure represents a 2.3% decrease compared to 2024, when the country had 47,088,922 students. This amounts to a decline of approximately 1 million students in one year.

Conducted annually by the Anísio Teixeira National Institute for Educational Studies and Research (Inep), the survey gathers data from 178,000 public and private schools throughout the country and serves as the primary barometer for educational policies.

High school has seen the sharpest decline. Enrollment fell 5.3% between 2024 and 2025, reaching its lowest level in the past ten years. Today, there are 7.3 million students at this level.

The decline was driven by the public sector, while the private sector posted slight growth of 0.6% during the same period.

The state of São Paulo played a decisive role in this scenario. Of the 425,000 fewer students in Brazilian public high schools, 259,000 are from schools in São Paulo, representing about 60% of the total national decline. Although it accounts for approximately 20% of the country’s high school students, the state was responsible for the bulk of the decline.

Historically considered one of the greatest challenges in basic education, high school faces high dropout rates. In 2024, only 82.8% of 15- to 17-year-olds were enrolled. Among the poorest 20%, that percentage dropped to 72%, according to data from Todos Pela Educação. Data on dropout rates for 2025 has not yet been released.

Age-cohort distortion indicators

Another explanation for the decline in enrollment, according to the MEC, is the reduction in repeat rates and the improvement in indicators of age-grade mismatch.

"Students are repeating grades less often. In the past, grade retention was overwhelming the system. Year after year, as I reduce the age-grade mismatch and give students who are falling behind the opportunity to graduate, I’m reducing enrollment numbers," noted Education Minister Camilo Santana.

According to him, these two trends point to greater efficiency in the country’s educational system. The minister believes the School Census showed that Brazilian education made significant strides in 2025.

The age-grade discrepancy—an indicator that measures the proportion of students who are two or more years behind in school—decreased from 27.2% in 2021 to 14% in 2025 in high school. The data suggests that more students are enrolled in the grade appropriate for their age.

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Retention programs have yet to show consistent results

One of the federal government’s key strategies to combat school dropout rates is the Pé-de-Meia program, launched in 2024. The initiative provides financial incentives for high school students to stay in school and has an estimated cost of R$ 12 billion.

To date, however, there is still no consolidated data that would allow for an assessment of the program’s direct impact on retention and enrollment rates.

Enrollment data are reported to the MEC by state education departments and may be influenced by changes in regional policies or registration issues. There are also discrepancies in how students with low attendance but who have not completely dropped out of school are counted.

Full-time education moves forward and meets the PNE goal

While enrollment has declined, the country has made progress in extending the school day. The 2025 School Census shows the highest percentage of full-time students in the last four years.

In the public school system, the proportion of full-time in-person enrollment with a school day of seven hours or more rose from 15.1% in 2021 to 25.8% in 2025, an increase of 10.7%.

With this result, Brazil has achieved Goal 6 of the 2014–2024 National Education Plan (PNE), which aims to provide full-time education to at least 25% of students in the public basic education system. In high school, the increase was also significant, rising from 16.7% in 2022 to 26.8% in 2025.

This result is attributed, in part, to the R$4 billion investment in the Full-Time School Program, created in 2023 to support states and municipalities in extending the school day.

The Structural Challenge

Data from the School Census reflect not only educational policies but also demographic changes. Brazil is experiencing a process of population aging, with a shrinking base of the age pyramid—specifically the 0-to-19 age group.

Today, of the 46 million students in basic education, about 9 million are enrolled in private schools, and the rest in public schools.

The decline in the total number of students may indicate improvements in school enrollment patterns and natural demographic effects, but it also raises concerns about student retention and the school’s appeal, especially at the high school level.

Sources: UOLand MEC.

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