Enrollment of new students in private higher education declined in three of the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. This trend, highlighted by an analysis conducted by Hoper Educação in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Higher Education Institutions (ABMES), is attributed primarily to changes in course offerings in response to waning demand for distance learning (EAD).

The survey indicates that, across all sectors combined, first-half performance fell short of last year’s levels. The survey report highlights that, with the new cycle already underway, the sector is entering the second half of the year under pressure, lacking a clear driver of growth and facing the impact of regulatory changes.

The survey categorized performance into three categories: in-person, blended distance learning, and online distance learning, distinguished by the degree of in-person instruction. The online format was the most affected, with a decline in five of the first six months of the year, despite a one-off spike in May. In-person instruction also saw a decline in January (-5%), February (-3%), April (-2%), and June (-1%), but showed signs of recovery in May, with a 4% increase, indicating a slight resurgence in students’ interest in the campus experience.

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Even in a challenging economic climate, in-person education continues to be perceived as offering value associated with academic quality and the college experience—factors that have gained prominence following years of rapid growth in distance learning. Since 2023, the data has reinforced a trend: on-campus enrollment is increasing, blended learning remains stable, and online distance learning is losing ground, signaling saturation, although it still accounts for the majority of enrollments.

Expectations for the second half of the year are cautious. A survey conducted in May among education administrators revealed that 74% of institutions anticipate difficulties in maintaining their enrollment levels, primarily due to a decline in demand and the need to reposition their programs.

The study by Hoper and ABMES analyzed data from 311 private institutions of higher education, which together account for 46% of first-year students and 36% of total enrollment in Brazil. The sample is nationally representative and reflects the different regional realities of the private sector, with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error.

Source: ABMES.

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